Jon Ralston on a political fast forward to 2010

I had to check my calendar Thursday to make sure I wasnÕt James Darren in 1966, spinning my way into ÒThe Time Tunnel.Ó

It certainly felt like it already was OctoberÊ2010 with all the events surrounding the Harry Reid Death Watch occurring within a few hours. The election seems a fortnight away, not 417 days. If itÕs this intense now, I canÕt imagine what it will be like next year. To wit:

¥ NRSC Frothing, Part 1: This was positively Pavlovian: The day after South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson called President Barack Obama a liar during his health care speech, the National Republican Senatorial Committee went back in time to exhume Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidÕs labeling of President George W. Bush as a liar for reneging on his Òsound scienceÓ promise vis-a-vis Yucca Mountain.

The difference, the NRSC pointed out, was that Wilson immediately apologized and Reid refused to. There was one other difference, too, which the NRSC did not highlight: Unlike Obama, who told the truth about illegal immigrants and health care reform, Bush really did lie about the nuclear waste dump.

But during a week in which Politico listed the Top 10 Reidisms, itÕs clear the NRSC will happily remind voters of the majority leaderÕs sometimes jarring, occasionally inappropriate candor at every opportunity.

¥ NRSC Frothing, Part 2: Later in the day, in a release labeled ÒBreaking,Ó the NRSC gleefully reported that national pundit Charlie Cook had moved ReidÕs seat from ÒLikely DemocraticÓ to ÒToss Up.Ó This isnÕt news to political insiders here or in D.C., but the public imprimatur of the conventional wisdom from one who helps set it was cause for confetti-throwing at NRSC Central.

Hard to blame the Republicans, who focused on this line from CookÕs assessment:

ÒIf we were skeptical of ReidÕs vulnerability at the start of the cycle, we have become increasingly convinced over the last two months or so that he is as endangered as any Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2010. ReidÕs inability to improve his standing in the polls, coupled with the deteriorating political environment for Democrats nationally and (Sue) LowdenÕs impending entry into the race, are clear indications that his political problems are deep and will be difficult (though not impossible) to fix.Ó

CookÕs analysis, based on recent polling, the national atmospherics and the endless flow of Reidisms, is trenchant as far as it goes. I have argued for months that even a second-tier candidate could defeat Reid next year, but what if there are four second-tier candidates in the primary? Which brings me to É

¥ Is the roll call too long? The capital insider publication Roll Call on Thursday looked at the glut of GOP contenders and wondered if the GOP might have not embarrassment of riches, but some rich guys, some embarrassments and generally too many contenders:

ÒRepublicans lost their top choice in Nevada when Rep. Dean Heller decided to pass on the race, and if no other choice candidate can be found some Republicans are now wondering if going after Reid would be the best use of the NRSCÕs resources.

ÒIf they donÕt have somebody, why would they make that investment if the candidates are just destined to lose?Ó one Nevada GOP insider said Wednesday. ÒIÕm not saying thatÕs the case right now, but thatÕs how itÕs playing out. You have a lot of B-level candidates. I think they have to ask themselves if this is worthwhile.Ó

That may be overstating the case — the NRSC clearly has to make the Reid race its No.Ê1 priority. But unless NRSC boss John Cornyn is standing next to Sue Lowden, the state GOP chairwoman who clearly is the strongest GOP candidate, when she announces next month, the Republicans are asking for trouble. With Reid as weak as at any time in his career, the only way Republicans will not be competitive is if they commit murder-suicide in the primary.

As if there werenÕt enough national attention on the race in one day, The Hill, another capital insider publication, profiled Danny Tarkanian, wondering whether ÒTark, Jr.Ó will Òtake a bite out of Reid.Ó And for good measure, The New York Times is profiling sometimes-Nevadan, mostly New Yorker John Chachas, who is also in the race against Reid and has a home in Ely. And to top it off, Karl Rove, who has promised to write nasty bits about Reid in his forthcoming book, will be in town this month to speak, and his appearance was promoted Thursday by the conservative think tank the Nevada Policy Research Institute.

Is it really September 2009 and not October 2010? You could have fooled me.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program ÒFace to Face With Jon RalstonÓ on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter ÒRalstonFlash.com.Ó His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.