Next U.S. Senate: 57-43 Democratic

The media are overflowing with predic- tions of a major pick-up by Democrats in the 35 U.S. Senate races November 4. Ear- lier this year. Democratic National Chair- man Howard Dean surprised most reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast when he predicted his party would gain seven seats in the Senate, which is now divided 49 Republicans to 49 Democrats (effectively 51 (because independents Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont vote with the Democrats), making the new Senate 58-42 Democratic.

But lately. Dean's predictions do not seem so pie-in-the-sky, in good part because of the Democrats' fundraising advantage. The Republican senatorial committee has not come close to matching its Democratic counterpart and the Republican National Committee, which has been very successful in fund-raising, is sending much of its money to the McCain campaign rather than to Senate races.

Should Barack Obama win the presidency and Democrats come close to the "magic 60 seats in the Senate, it would be nearly impossible for Republicans to stop any of the many Obama-backed liberal programs that Pat Buchanan discusses in this week's cover story. Moreover, any radical nominee to the Supreme Court by a President Obama would be guaranteed confirmation if Democrats are near the 60 seats required to end a filibuster.

Of the 35 seats up November 4, 23 seats are now held by Republicans, and 12 by Democrats. Two of the 35 Senate elections are special elections in which the appointed Republican senators in Mississippi and Wyoming are trying to fill the remainders of unexpired terms.

Of the five seats in which Republican senators are retiring. Democrats will win the seats of Senators Wayne Allard (Colo.), Pete Domenici (N.M.), and John Warner (Va.) for a net gain of three. Republicans will hold the seats of retiring Senators Larry Craig (Idaho) and Chuck Hagel (Neb.).

Democratic challengers will unseat Republican Senators John Sununu (N.H.), Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), and Gordon Smith (Ore.), which increases the Democratic net gain to six.

AU of the Democratic senators up for election will be re-elected. The most intriguing stories among the Senate races will be the survivals of Republican Senators Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Ted Stevens (Alaska), who was just convicted on seven corruption counts.

All this means the next Senate will have 57 Democrats and 43 Republicans, or the same breakdown as in 1993 when Republican senators thwarted Hillary Clinton's healthcare plan.

Net Democratic Gain of 16 Seats Will Leave House with 252 Democrats and 183 Republicans

It always seemed a foregone conclusion that, notwithstanding the basement-low approval ratings for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrats were going to pick up some seats in the House of Representatives. The mathematics of the vacancies overwhelming favored the Democrats, with 26 Republican House members retiring and only five Democratic lawmakers stepping down or running for another office.

In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had a tremendous money advantage over its Republican counterpart. Earlier this year, the revelation that the ousted treasurer of the National Republican Congressional Committee had embezzled an estimated $1 million from the campaign organization was devastating to the NRCC's election-year fund-raising. As NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said in beginning an interview with me, "It sure doesn't help when you learn your treasurer is a complete crook!"

At the time of the interview. Cole cited a 7-to-1 DCCC spending advantage over his committee. Later this year, notably after Sarah Palin's nomination for Vice President, he explained. Republican fund-raising picked up notably and the Democratic edge was reduced to 4-to-1-smaller, but still very significant.

Also, operatives on both sides agree that Democratic recruitment efforts in open Republican seats were vastly superior to the Republican effort to find first-rate challengers to Democratic incumbents and candidates to retain seats being relinquished by GOP incumbents.

So. in addition to the fall-out from the Wall Street bailout and whatever impact the presidential race has on the lower-level races, mathematics and money clearly favor Democrats, increasing their ranks in the House. As to how many, veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg told reporters recently that, having gained 30 seats in winning control of the House in '06, it would be "remarkable" and "almost unprecedented" if Democrats gained as many in the subsequent elections. Greenberg's guess was "a net gain of closer to 25." (Greenberg's cohort, Democratic political gun-for-hire James Carville was a bit more daring, predicting at the same gathering of reporters a gain of 30 seats in the House for the Democrats).

My own analysis yields a somewhat smaller gain for Democrats.

The present party breakdown by in the House is 235 Democrats. 199 Republicans, and one vacancy (the Cleveland. Ohio, seat of Democrat Stephanie Tubbs Jones, who died earlier this year).

Losing Republicans

Democrats will unseat ten Republican incumbents: Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.). Tom Feeney (Fla.). Ric Keller (Fla.). Mark Kirk (Ill.), Joseph Knollenberg (Mich.), Tim Walberg (Mich.), Jon Porter (Nev.), Randy Kuhl (N.Y.), Robin Hayes (N.C.), and Dave Reichert (Wash.). That raises the Democrats to 245 seats, and lowers the Republicans to 189.

Democrats will also gain ten open seats relinquished by Republicans: those of retiring Representatives Terry Everett (Ala.), Rick Renzi (Ariz.), Jerry Weiler (Ill.), Mike Ferguson (N.J.), Vito Fossella (N.Y.), Tom Reynolds (N.Y.), James Walsh (N.Y.), Ralph Regula (Ohio), Deborah Pryce (Ohio), and Tom Davis (Va.). Those pick-ups give the Democrats 255 seats and lower Republicans to 179 seats.

Three Democratic Losers

However, Republican challengers will defeat three Democratic U.S. Representatives: Tim Mahoney (Fla.), Paul Kanjorski (Pa.), and Nick Lampson (Tex.). In addition, Republicans will pick up the seat relinquished by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer (Ala.). That brings the breakdown to 251

Democratic seats to 183 Republican seats. Democrats will retain the other four seats relinquished by Democratic incumbents. Republicans will hold onto 16 other districts in which GOP incumbents retired. In the districts in which Republican incumbents were defeated in primaries-those of Representatives. Wayne Gilchrest (Md.), David Davis (Tenn.), and Chris Cannon (Utah)-the challengers who defeated them will retain the seats for the GOP November 4.

Assuming another Democrat wins the vacant seat that was held by Rep. Tubbs-Jones in Ohio, the U.S. House of Representatives in January will have 252 Democrats and 183 Republicans.