Problem is, as hard as they try the GOP primary just isnt shaking out quite the way they want it to. Yes, Donald Trump is giving media plenty to talk about and the traffic that comes with the talk is good for business. But through all the talk is mockery, insult and ridicule aimed in the direction of Trump and his supporters. Media reports on Trump, but reports on him as some sort of circus side show unfit for command.
Donald Trump now has a clear and commanding lead in the polls. How long he stays there is anyones guess. But the way the media is spinning it is downright hilarious. They arent talking about the lead in terms of it being good for Donald Trump. They speak of the lead as somehow being good for Jeb Bush. The claim is that Trump splits the conservative vote.
And while to an extent that may be true, the experts still havent shown us where the alleged Bush support really is. Also, the experts are ignoring what should be the key danger to any Bush path to victory… Scott Walker.
While the media argues with itself over whether Jeb Bush or Donald Trump is the frontrunner, it refuses to discuss Scott Walker. This refusal wouldnt be an issue if Scott Walker wasnt actually polling second behind Trump, but he is. And THAT should be the story.
Indeed, the two latest national polls have Bush third behind Donald Trump and Scott Walker.
One from ABC/Washington Post.
- Donald Trump 24%
- Scott Walker 13%
- Jeb Bush 12%
And one from Fox News.
- Donald Trump 18%
- Scott Walker 15%
- Jeb Bush 14%
This has to be excellent news for Scott Walkers camp and terrifying news for team Jeb. Scott Walker has been relatively quiet on the national scene. His campaign is taking all the right steps in Iowa and working a very strategic, methodical and smart plan. Bush on the other hand has had to be loud and engaged nationally to keep any sort of footing in the polls. What does it say about the race when a quiet campaign based in Madison is actually beating the noisy, big money Bush campaign? All while Donald Trump commands the media stage?
Donald Trumps rise does hurt candidates, but I dont think it benefits Bush. Trump is bleeding Ted Cruz dry of support, for example. Since May, according to the ABC/WAPO poll, Cruz has loft HALF of his support. Thats a pretty stunning statistic and, if true, shows Cruz is in a lot of trouble. Granted, Cruz has a powerful fundraising and campaign infrastructure, so a last minute surge if/when Trump slumps is entirely possible.
But when it comes to Scott Walker, Trump isnt taking support away. In fact, Walkers numbers have increased since May and continue to do so. Walkers key hurdle is national name recognition, but it appears his campaign is more focused in the first few primary states for the moment and will handle that later.
As far is Bush is concerned, where can he win outside of Florida? Iowa? Nope. New Hampshire? Not likely. South Carolina? I doubt it. So where? What is his road to victory? And even in Florida hes going to have to spend more than planned thanks to Rubio being in the battle. I think Bush takes Florida, but certainly not without spending time, money and resources to do it.
Bush has no clear path to victory, is running third in the polls and is being beat by a Wisconsin Governor who is famous for fighting powerful union bosses and winning. A Governor who won in a deep purple state and even defeated a massively funded recall effort.
How exactly is Bush more qualified to be called or considered front-runner over Scott Walker or Donald Trump? Both Trump and Walker, in my opinion, have a much clearer path to victory than Bush. Money is certainly a factor, but Trump could dump hundreds of millions into the race and it wouldnt make a dent in his bank account. Walker is no stranger to big dollar fundraising either, as his 3 elections in 4 years proved.
Jeb Bush may be considered top tier because of his financial war chest, but hes at the bottom of the top tier. And the media wont dare tell you that.