Fox News has confirmed only 10 of the 16 candidates will be invited to participate. While they havent yet announced which of the 10 will be invited, they have confirmed the invitations will go out based on the latest polling data at the time of selection. One can assume that selection will be very soon consider August 6th is just around the corner.
If we look at the latest poll results put out by Fox News to date, the following are the 10 candidates who will be on the stage. Listed in the order where they appear in the results.
- Donald Trump 18%
- Scott Walker 15%
- Jeb Bush 14%
- Rand Paul 8%
- Marco Rubio 7%
- Ben Carson 6%
- Ted Cruz 4%
- Mike Huckabee 4%
- Chris Christie 3%
- John Kasich or Rick Santorum (Tied at 2%)
Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki all poll at 1% or below.
When 3 other polls are included to get an overall average the outcome doesnt really change. Certain spots shift up or down, but the top 10 remain the top 10.
Fox News may go on newer polling data, but I dont suspect the outcome will shift much. Meaning, the above list is the most likely list of those who will be on the debate stage next month.